Democracy is a Misleading Term
With a looming election in the United States, it seems every year there is an election with a generally unexpected result. The reason for this outcome is primarily driven by the system of government that dictates the winning party: democracy.
Democracy is a fashionable term in the world of politics. It often connotes a positive association while authoritarian and similar forms of government carry less favorable views in the general public. While there are many arguments that discuss the problems of democracies, I’d like to focus on one underlying issue: Who determines the elections in a democracy? By definition a democracy is “a system of government by the whole population or all the eligible members of a state, typically throught elected representatives”. In its most basic terms, it would involve the people, provided they meet the legal requirements, electing the government. Now which people are truly responsible for electing a president?
Taking the example of the U.S. Elections, the elections are determined by a candidate who receives 270 electoral votes (this is also known as the magic number). Each state is assigned a number of electoral votes. In the majority of the states, the winner takes ALL the electoral votes. So the party that has the most votes should win the election, right? Not necessarily. We’ve seen this recently in the 2000 U.S. presidential elections with Al Gore losing versus. George W. Bush as well as in 2016 with Hillary Clinton losing against Donald Trump. Then one would think that a successful candidate or political party has to ensure they have a plan to win in every state.
Not quite. There are a number of safe states that will always vote Republican or Democrat. For instance, California has voted for a Democratic candidate for the last 7 presidential elections. Since many states generally follow this pattern they could be considered as constants in the elections tally. In the next image, each state is represented by its political preference. Red means the state is safe or leaning towards the Republican candidate. Similarly, a blue state means it is either state or leaning for Democrats. Now, I’d like to draw your attention to the yellow or “toss-up” states. These are the swing states. They can go either Red or Blue. These are denoted purple.
Currently, president Biden has more than 270 electoral votes combining safe and leaning states. In theory, Biden only needs to hold his lead while Trump would need to win every swing state. Taking this idea one step further, we need to look no further than the 2008 elections where Obama won with 50.9% of the vote in Florida. There are approximately around 120,000 voters per county in Florida. The counties of Pinellas and Hillsborough are perhaps some of the most important swing counties, given their size and a relatively equal proportion of undecided voters. So what do you do if you are a campaign strategist? You make intense advertising campaigns in Pinellas and Hillsborough. However, your opponent will most likely do the same. It’s safe to presume that all sides will try to provide the message that is most appealing to the county’s population. Thus, campaign strategists need to rely on another group of professionals called marketers. These guys will be in charge of making the best use of each dollar used for the candidate’s promotion. Marketers are just as important to win an election as the presidential candidate.
My point with this example is that the primacy of a good campaign strategist and a shrewd marketing team are essential to winning these swing counties and by extension, the election. What do you need for this? Money. Lobbying dictates a big percentage of a candidate’s spending. The most significant chunk of this money must come from the wealthiest individuals and companies with interests in America.
Provided that candidates do not have contentious ideals that gainsay the principles of their political party, the swing vote matters the most. To properly address the swing counties, one needs a good campaign strategist, a good marketing team and a sizable budget for them to work with. Money matters. The wealthy determine the elections. Whether that’s a good or a bad thing I leave that up to you but what is for sure is that the term democracy is misleading. A de jure democracy is more like a de facto plutocracy.
